Verdict 2004

Lessons to learn from Verdict 2004

[Written in May 2004]

The dumb millions of this country have spoken again through the ballot buttons. But they are like children. They can only cry without telling in so many words if they are suffering from stomach - ache or hunger or something else. The foster mothers – Political leaders – should come to the correct diagnosis if they have to administer the right solution/ medicine.

Unfortunately the politicians are most likely to come only to wrong conclusions from the results, what ever is their political dispensation. The congress leaders infer that the people have voted for them and their Monmohanomics. BJP leaders infer that the rout is due to regional factors, a negative vote against their regional allies. The regional parties feel the vote is against the BJP, as this was the election for the Lok sabha and not for the state legislatures. Everybody is right and wrong at the same time.

The clue to the correct diagnosis lies in the history.

At the time of the first election after gaining independence, the nation, formed after a long drawn struggle with the mightiest of empires ‘The British Empire’, in its nascent stage had to contend with many problems. India was a largely agrarian society, industrially highly under developed. The Government had to ensure that the different communities coexist peacefully and the aspirations of the deferent classes met.

The Indian National Congress had an edge over other parties, as they had been the torchbearers through the many decades of the Independence struggle. It was easy to identify who will govern best and do good for the masses. Jawaharlal Nehru the political heir of Mahatma Gandhi justified the faith Gandhiji as well as the people had in him. Earlier he (with the blessing of Gandhiji) among many others was instrumental in framing the constitution, which ushered in a Democratic, Socialistic and Secular form of Governance as the norm in India. ‘Jawaharlal’s Government’ is a model for Best Governance.

Congress won the first five consecutive terms and was routed in the sixth immediately following Indira’s emergency. Getting in again in the next election when the people found the alternative was not cohesive enough to give a stable rule, the Congress again lost it after a stint by Rajiv when corruption at high places took the toll. Again the same lack of cohesiveness among the alternatives brought back the Congress. But the total U turn made by Narasimha Rao almost threw the Congress in to oblivion in 1996.

Narasimha Rao dumped once and for all, all that the Congress has been standing for, for ages before him. The socialistic economics with the Nehruvian Democratic Socialism model, the attendant Mixed economy, Joint sector, protected and controlled economy of Jawaharlal Nehru, which laid a very strong foundation to the Indian economy was suddenly painted as the villain by him and the shackles were broken (in Raoji’s words) and a free for all situation was ushered in, which ultimately opened the flood gates for the communal and regressive forces (read RSS – BJP) to gain power.

The High command of the Congress party should realise that Congress lost power in 1996 only because of the bungling of the economic policies by the Narasimha rao’s government – Manmohanomics!? There was just no other issue at that time. The charges of corruption, forgery etc. levelled against him, were trivial as compared to the larger issue of economic policies. The BJP could come in subsequently due only to the TINA factor as acknowledged by them.

The Congress party from the days it started participating in elections well before India got Independence has been basically pursuing socialistic and secular policies which later translated in to the now infamous democratic socialism of the bygone Jawaharlal era. Everyone has to remember that this nation of a billion plus population is a predominantly agrarian society, with majority of the population struggling for existence in the backwardness of rural India. Realising this very well only did Jawaharlal embark upon Democratic Socialism with mixed economy, joint sector and protected and controlled economy policies. He planned to set up capital-intensive large primary industries in the public sector which he called appropriately the ‘Temples of modern India’, which were to catalyse the development of down stream industries in the medium and small-scale sectors by private entrepreneurs. The concept of encouraging small-scale industries, tiny sector and rural industries was to ensure large-scale employment generation and wider distribution of wealth. He initiated building many dams resulting in an agrarian revolution. Even the ‘Green revolution’ and the ‘White revolution’ of later days where all made possible because of the foundation laid by Nehru. To ‘Wipe out every tear from every eye’ and ‘Equitable distribution of wealth’ were the founding principles of the Congress party’s policies then and they wanted to achieve these goals the democratic way. In contrast the Jan sang (the earlier avatar of BJP) was largely a party of Ex Maharajas, traders and other haves and basically a communal out fit, a political wing of the Communal RSS. The communist on the other hand wanted to go the China way or the Russia way trying to achieve the same socialistic goals as Congress, but by the violent revolutionary way as they believed that the ‘Power flows from the barrel of the Gun’.

When Nehru assumed power, the economy was in shambles as a result of centuries of colonial rule. All round development of the nation had to be ensured including industrial and agricultural development, setting up of academic institutions, starting from primary schools to institutions of higher learning, research institutions, hospitals etc. He had to contend with the communal strife, fanned by the RSS on the Indian side of the sub continent. He had to lay a strong foundation for democratic governance, not letting the country drift in to the hands of communists. In fact had he chosen the path of Narasimha rao then, we would have been bulldozed in to communism long back. He was solely responsible for keeping the communist at bay. Further the nation was in fragments, which had to be integrated. That he met the expectations of the masses remarkably well is bourn by the fact that he and his Congress were re elected twice to the office and the party continued to bask in his glory for the 27 years after his demise, getting elected many more times, until they discovered him to be a liability in 1991 after getting elected on his glory and when IMF told them so.

By any measure he is among the greatest of all rulers – democrats, monarchs, dictators or any others – in any part of the world. His achievements are far too many to be listed here. The achievements of the other PMs - Congress or otherwise – don’t measure a fraction of his, even on a pro rata basis and even without taking in to account the fact that they inherited a much more comfortable situation when they came to power than what Nehru inherited from the British.

As long as Congress stuck to these basics of democracy, socialism and secularism there was no alternative. In fact there was no need for an alternative either. When Indira Nehru (The descendants of Nehru dynasty are better referred as Nehrus to avoid tarnishing the image of the Greatest Human being Mahatma Gandhi apart from the fact that Indira’s estranged husbands surname was not Gandhi, but Ghande or some thing like that) went the autocratic way by declaring emergency, she was promptly shown the doors at the earliest opportunity and with that the Congress was out of power for the first time.

When the people found that the Government lead by Rajiv Nehru was deviating from the basics – Governing the rural India, industrial work force and the masses – but was indulging in large-scale corruption and mis-governance he was shown the doors too.

Narsimha Rao gave a go by to the very basic principles of the Congress by going the BJP way. He betrayed the faith reposed by the people in his party, the party of Gandhi and Nehru. His privatisation, liberalisation and globalisation did not do any good to the common masses and the rural population. In fact it delivered a heavy blow to the agrarian society by cancelling subsidies, free power etc. and concentrated on only helping the haves to have more but rendering the have nots to have nothings. The industrial infra structure built assiduously by Nehru was ruined. These only led to the debacle of the Congress and drove it almost to oblivion. They seem to be forgetting all this and started dreaming that the people have voted for Manmohanomics again, not satisfied with the speed of so called reforms of Yeshwant Sinha and Jaswant Singh. In fact in 1996 people must have felt it will be better to try the untried BJP – the original capitalist party – instead of the newly converted capitalist – Congress party – as the new converts failed them miserably with the bungling of the economic policies.

This time around in 2004, they seem to have got disgusted with the communal policies of the BJP adding fuel to the fire of economic (or is it the ‘un economic’?) policies along with mis-governance etc. It should be remembered that this BJP Government did absolutely nothing creditable. A war which could very well have been avoided, testing of Nuclear device which should have been avoided, widening of several thousands of kilometres of a road network which was already wide enough while several villages have no connecting roads to the nearby town, were all not adding to the welfare of the people nor to the glory of the government. In fact the BJP Government did not develop the bomb. It was there for decades. The earlier governments had only avoided showing off the armoury to avoid unnecessarily increasing the tension in the region.

The congress party has now entrusted the formulation of Common Minimum Programme to Mr Manmohan Singh indicating that they can never learn the lesson.

(This article was written before Mr. MMS was nominated to the post of PM)

In fact the almost equal number of seats won by congress and BJP and the substantial increase in the number of seats won by the left parties, indicate that the people have realised that basically there is nothing much to choose between Congress and BJP in the economic (uneconomic) policies and they have only to look up to the Communists to come to their rescue.

Both the incumbent ‘online’ ministries in the states of AP and Karnataka, (Chandrababu Noidu’s and S.M. Krishna’s who have been hailed by the media till the other day for their pro IT reforms) have been put ‘off the line’. IT and other high tech business may lead to marginal generation of employment. But for every job created, it has been throwing out many from employment. Even the benefits of the generated employment is enjoyed by a very few and the high wages to these IT professionals has been leading to heavy inflation which affects every body, particularly the poor millions. Inflation figures can be cooked up to any extent to show lower rates but the common man is concerned about the real inflation in the cost of essential commodities and not doctored figures. He is not concerned about the crash in BSE index. He is concerned about the soaring COL (cost of living) index. He is not concerned about BOP (balance of payment) but about the BHIP (balance in his pocket)

The Congress now vested with the responsibility to form the new government by default should understand basically a few facts.

The verdict is not for the Congress to Govern. It is an anti BJP verdict for practically the same reasons as was the case with Congress in 1996. Narasimha rao’s Manmohanomics has been voted out by the people not just once - in 1996 - but twice - in 2004 as well – as, the Sinhanomics (Yashwant Sinha’s) and Singhanomics (Jaswanth singh’s) were not any different from the Manmohanomics.

In a democracy, the people are the masters and not IMF, WTO, World Bank, Chamber of commerce or media. The government has to do what the people want and what is good for them rather than what is good for World Bank or USA or what they want. In fact the voting being in the region of 55 to 60 %, with the rich, business men, industrialists and elites not caring to vote, only means almost all the votes polled are from the poor, rural, agrarian, industrial workers, middle class and government employees only. Hence the rulers have to cater to those who have voted for them, more than those who do not care to vote.

Hence this blunder of Manmohanomics should not be repeated. We have to revert to the Nehruvian model of economics. In fact Narasimha Rao had no mandate to tamper with the time tested economic policies pursued by earlier Governments. He was elected on the Congress’s policies of the day and not to ruin the country by bungling the economics with his fancies and pledging the country to US. He betrayed the people.

The economists, intelligentsia and media may say ‘the reforms are not reversible’. This is like the alcoholic saying he drinks only for company. He knows he is wrong but he wants a scapegoat. The reforms (deforms?), which have resulted in great deal of harm to the masses of the country, including over 300,000 farmers committing suicide [figure updated], ruining of thousands of industries, rendering several millions jobless and the stagflation, can very well be reversed and must be reversed. Nobody can do it better than the Congress, not only because they only did this blunder of deforms, but since they still claim to have some thing to do with Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru.

An extract from my earlier writing [in 1992-93] on Rao’s ‘shackle braking, is given below.

“We have to provide jobs to the millions to enable them to earn their morsel of food. If we can create a situation in which, ‘those who don’t get even one meal a day, earn one hence forth, that will be the true development and not making those earning a crore today, earn 2 crores tomorrow’. ‘To wipe out every tear from every eye’ is the need. Realizing these basic socio-economic goals only, Gandhiji and later the Indian Government led by Nehru were concentrating on ‘Employment generation’ and ‘Equitable distribution of wealth’. ‘Cottage and village industries movement’ and ‘Rural reconstruction programs’ by Gandhiji and later Gramdhan & Boodhan movements by Vinobaji, ‘Development of small and tiny sector industries’ by Nehru, were to spur the employment generation. The democratic socialism model with mixed economy policy of Jawaharlal Nehru laid a very strong foundation to the Indian economy, with the capital-intensive heavy industries under public sector catalysing the down stream industries in private sector.

‘Globalisation’ and ‘liberalisation’ are just the reversal of all the efforts of such towering personalities as Gandhi and Nehru. What is the result of over a decade of ‘Globalisation and liberalisation’?

I predicted as soon as the liberalisation and globalisation programmes were announced in 1991 that, ‘within 3 years all small scale industries will be closed, within 4 to 5 years all medium scale industries will be closed and within 5 to 6 years all large scale industries will also be closed, leaving only MNCs to survive. And what will the MNCs produce? Lipsticks and nail polishes?

Unfortunately this prophesy has come unbelievably true. Several lakhs of Indian industries – small and medium, followed by large industries – have been closed, leaving only MNCs to survive. And what do the MNCs produce – only cosmetics. Massive unemployment including premature retirement (voluntary retirement or golden hand shake?) has driven millions to struggle for existence.”

“The only thing that has been globalised is the ‘Coca cola culture’ or ‘M TV culture’ or ‘Consumerist culture’ – call it as you like. I call it ‘The Under Ware Culture of the Americas’.

What can the IT industry do in this situation? Can we live eating the ‘bits and bytes’? Can the flashes on the monitor or the print outs baled out fill even one stomach? (except that of a donkey). All the food we eat, furniture we sit on, buildings we live in and vehicles we travel by, are made by the hard labour of the artisans, farmers, construction workers and industrial work force. Not by the flick of the buttons. The IT industry is at best a ‘De- employing’ industry, the one which is widening the gap between the haves and have- nots. Bill Gates is widening it a billion fold.”

“The very reason why the Asian tigers collapsed while India did not is that we did not blindly try to become another America the way Asian tigers did. The foundation laid by Nehru in the fifties (democratic socialism and mixed economy) is so strong that the attempt from 80s and all the ‘Globalisation and liberalisation’ of the ‘Manmohan Sinhas’, have not yet succeeded in ruining our economy fully, though it is deteriorating fast. They diagnose the reason for the deterioration as ‘not going whole hog at it’. In fact the slower pace only is holding us from total and fast ruin. But they can never realise it as the ‘Harvard, Oxford and Cambridge economics’ they have learnt has taught them to believe contrary to reality.”